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S&P 500 dividend yields signal oversold?
Historically the S&P 500 was considered overbought — and ripe for a bear market — when the dividend yield dropped below 3 percent. A surge in share buybacks in the past two decades, however,...
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New Jolt Looms for Investors: Earnings – WSJ.com
Jonathan Cheng: Companies begin reporting second-quarter earnings this week, starting with Alcoa Inc. (AA -2.19%) on Monday. Already, 42 companies—including Ford Motor Co. (F -0.73%) and Texas...
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On Investment Time Horizons – Seeking Alpha
David Merkel observes that Shiller’s CAPE10 ratio and Tobin’s Q-ratio both “indicate that stocks are not likely to return a lot over the next 10 years”. The CAPE10 ratio is a long-term, smoothed...
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The Most Compelling Argument for Equities | Pragmatic Capitalism
Cullen Roche quotes David Rosenberg: The Fed has also completely altered the relationship between stocks and bonds by nurturing an environment of ever deeper negative real interest rates. Therein lies...
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Ten companies most of S&P 500 Earnings Growth | The Big Picture
Barry Ritholz quotes Adam Parker at Morgan Stanley: ….88% of the S&P500 earnings growth for 2012 came from just 10 firms. Makes you question whether earnings are sustainable — especially when the...
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2013 Profit Margin Expectations | Business Insider
Sam Ro writes: Overall, Wall Street’s strategists are bullish on stocks for 2013 for various reasons. One reason worth taking a second look at is expanding corporate profit margins, which are already...
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Dr. Ed’s Blog: Dividends, Buybacks, & the Bull Market (excerpt)
Ed Yardeni highlights that a surge in dividends and share buybacks is driving the current bull market: Most importantly, during the current earnings season, US corporations continue to announce...
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Is the S&P 500 overvalued?
The daily press appears convinced the S&P 500 is overvalued and due for a crash. Yet the macro-economic and volatility filters that we use at Porter Capital and Research & Investment — to...
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The Stock Market’s Missing Ingredient | Bloomberg View
Barry Ritholz discusses why military conflicts around the globe and civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri have little impact on market performance: ….None of this seems to matter to Mr. Market. He...
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7 golden rules for SMSF investors
I found myself nodding in agreement when I read this list from Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist at AMP Capital. I have added my comments in italics....
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Defensive PE at a dangerous high
Compare the fwd PE of "defensives" today vs. 1999. Doesn't look like exuberance. pic.twitter.com/W3Q5ZOxWB0 — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) August 14, 2016 Low interest rates and the accompanying...
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Nasdaq breaks its Dotcom high
Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 broke through its all-time high at 4900, first reached in the Dotcom bubble of 1999/2000. Follow-through above 5000 would signal another primary advance. Bearish divergence on...
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S&P 500 Price-Earnings suggest time to buy
The forward Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio for the S&P 500, depicted by the blue line on the chart below, recently dipped below 20. In 2014 to 2105, PEs above 20 warned that stocks were overpriced. We...
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Forward P/E turns back up
Dow Jones Industrials Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to climb, heading for a target of 21000. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal strong buying pressure. The S&P 500 follows a...
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S&P 500 Price-Earnings Ratio rises
With 84.4% of S&P 500 index constituents having reported first-quarter earnings, 302 (73.84%) beat their earnings estimates while 77 (18.83%) missed. Forward estimates for 2017 contracted by an...
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Is the ASX over-priced?
On the weekend I discussed how earnings for the S&P 500 have grown by roughly 6.0% over the last three decades but the growth rate should rise as stock buybacks have averaged just over 3.0% a year...
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Hardly an over-heated market
Discussions as to whether the stock market is over-priced normally imply that stocks are about to fall if valuations are too high. But history shows that this isn’t true. The euphoria of bull markets...
View ArticleSeven Weeks of Gains, Seven Equity Themes | Bob Doll
Great market summary from Bob Doll at Nuveen Asset Management: Economic data remains strong and hurricane effects have been surprisingly muted. Real third quarter gross domestic product was reported to...
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Black Monday, October 1987
What caused the Black Monday crash of 1987? Analysts are often unable to identify a single trigger or smoking gun that caused the crash. Sniper points to a sharp run-up in short-term interest rates in...
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